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Energy think tank Ember has published a report on European grid-connected networks. The report calls on the continent's transmission system operators to accelerate the construction of grid infrastructure to meet Europe's clean energy goals.
The report titled "Breaking Boundaries: The Future of European Electricity Lies in Grid-Connected Networks" argues that while the European grid is the largest such network in the world, with more than 400 interconnected networks providing electricity to nearly 600 million people, in order to achieve clean energy , in the next 10-15 years, transmission system operators need to double the current grid-connected capacity in continental Europe.
Specifically, the report calls for better installation of grid infrastructure in order to meet the requirements of Ember's "least cost electricity system" model, which will be published in June 2022. These models suggest that 70%-80% of Europe's electricity needs to come from wind and solar by 2035 to bring the continent to net-zero emissions by 2050. To achieve these goals, Europe needs more grid infrastructure.
Ember's Forecast of European Grid Connected Capacity and Demand in 2030 and 2040
Ember's latest report states that, taking into account the existing grid infrastructure and projects planned to be completed in the next few decades, Europe will need 225GW-274GW of grid-connected capacity by 2040, much higher than the current forecast capacity of 155GW.
The researchers note that with an additional 22GW grid connection plan not included in the raw data underpinning the current projected capacity of 136GW, continental Europe can achieve the grid capacity target of 148GW-187GW in 2030, but the pace of progress needs to be increased to achieve the longer-term target.
Elisabeth Cremona, energy and climate data analyst and author of the report, explained in the report: "By allowing electricity to cross national borders within minutes, grid integration creates a more flexible system that can balance geographic variations in wind and solar generation to maximize reduce output fluctuations and brownouts.”
Solar energy in particular, which could benefit from greater grid investment, looks set to feature prominently in many clean energy projections. In 2022, the European Network of Electricity Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E) published its ten-year network development plan, which examines how specific renewable energy sources could contribute to the new European energy network.
The group's conclusions are broadly in line with Ember's: 95% of Europe's electricity is expected to come from renewable sources by 2040. The team's scenario differentiation model (the range of outcomes for multiple energy sources in the European energy mix) suggests that Europe could have up to 50% solar capacity, 20% onshore wind and 10% offshore wind.
Investing exclusively in solar power could therefore bring about the most significant changes to Europe's energy infrastructure, provided its grids are scalable to meet growing electricity demand.
Solar PV projects for European energy companies
"This is critical to integrating the variable output of wind and solar energy in a cost-effective manner," Cremona said. Ratio cut in half."
"A more interconnected Europe also allows wind and solar to utilize optimal locations, unlocking higher renewable energy potential and increasing generation efficiency, which reduces the cost and capacity needed to decarbonize."
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